Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.53 | 1.37 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 43.1% |
| RP · chosen | 4.07 | 1.34 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 45.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.7 in | 3.7 in | 3.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.4 in | 14.4 in | 14.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.0 mph | 94.6 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.2 in | 16.3 in | 16.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.3 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Zone rate | 47.3% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.5% | 27.6% | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| Whiff rate | 19.7% | 21.1% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.9% | 43.1% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.6% | 39.4% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.5% | 20.0% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 42.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.5% | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.7% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.2% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% |