Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.04 | 1.35 | 26.4% | 11.4% | 48.1% |
| RP · chosen | 3.58 | 1.31 | 28.4% | 11.7% | 50.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.6 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.7 in | 8.8 in | 8.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.7 mph | 96.3 mph | 96.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.5 in | 4.6 in | 4.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 116 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Zone rate | 41.2% | 44.5% | 44.3% | 44.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.0% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 34.8% | 30.4% | 32.2% | 32.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.8% | 48.1% | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 26.3% | 37.4% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 15.0% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 32.6% | 26.4% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.7% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.9% | 54.0% | 54.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.1% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.5% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% |