Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.38 | 1.36 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 42.7% |
| RP · chosen | 3.92 | 1.33 | 24.8% | 10.6% | 44.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.3 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.2 in | 10.2 in | 10.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | 95.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.1 in | 17.3 in | 17.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Zone rate | 47.8% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.0% | 26.9% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Whiff rate | 28.0% | 24.8% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.3% | 42.7% | 44.7% | 44.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.9% | 37.7% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.6% | 22.8% | 24.8% | 24.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 33.2% | 33.8% | 33.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.7% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 17.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 14.9% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 16.1% | 16.1% |