Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 9.8 in
- RP forecast
- 9.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.08 | 1.27 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 42.4% |
| RP | 3.62 | 1.24 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 44.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.8 in | 9.7 in | 9.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.0 in | 15.0 in | 15.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.5 mph | 97.1 mph | 96.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.5 in | 9.6 in | 9.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.2 in | 18.3 in | 18.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 102 | 104 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 49.0% | 48.9% | 48.6% | 48.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.3% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 23.0% | 24.6% | 26.4% | 24.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.9% | 42.4% | 44.4% | 42.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.3% | 41.2% | 38.8% | 41.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.2% | 24.0% | 26.1% | 24.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.5% | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.4% | 64.4% | 64.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.7% | 25.3% | 24.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 22.7% | 21.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.1% | 19.4% | 20.1% |