Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.40 | 1.32 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 36.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.94 | 1.28 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 38.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.2 in | 9.1 in | 9.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.2 in | 18.2 in | 18.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.9 mph | 94.4 mph | 94.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.6 in | 3.7 in | 3.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.1 in | 8.2 in | 8.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 45.0% | 46.7% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.6% | 28.2% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| Whiff rate | 30.2% | 27.0% | 28.7% | 28.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.6% | 36.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.1% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.9% | 23.0% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 52.1% | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 37.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.2% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.8% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.1% | 17.3% | 17.3% |