Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.2 in
- RP forecast
- 10.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.2 in | 10.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.7 mph | 91.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.7 in | 17.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.4 in | 4.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 93 | 94 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 90 | 92 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 42.2% | 45.9% | 45.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.7% | 31.7% | 32.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.1% | 21.1% | 22.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.8% | 34.0% | 36.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.2% | 39.9% | 37.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.3 pp | 1.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.6% | 14.9% | 17.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.8% | 30.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.0% | 38.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.9% | 32.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 33.2% | 32.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.8% | 31.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 28.0% | 27.2% | — |