Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.4 in
- RP forecast
- 14.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.4 in | 14.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.9 in | 7.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.4 in | 4.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.0 in | 14.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.3% | 48.3% | 48.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.8% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.8% | 22.5% | 24.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.7% | 47.0% | 49.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.5% | 40.7% | 38.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.8 pp | 0.8 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 13.9% | 16.5% | 18.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 16.3% | 16.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 75.2% | 75.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.8% | 44.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.3% | 7.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.9% | 23.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.9% | 10.2% | — |