Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.6 in
Loading projection…
| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.96 | 1.19 | 25.1% | 7.4% | 33.4% |
| RP · chosen | 3.51 | 1.15 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 35.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.7 in | 7.6 in | 7.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.6 in | 19.6 in | 19.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.5 mph | 93.1 mph | 93.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.8 in | 4.0 in | 4.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.4 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 48.6% | 49.4% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.3% | 31.5% | 32.1% | 32.1% |
| Whiff rate | 35.7% | 30.6% | 32.4% | 32.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.7% | 33.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.7% | 37.2% | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 29.4% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 50.3% | 50.9% | 50.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 33.7% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.9% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 47.6% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.4% | 15.6% | 15.6% |