Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.42 | 1.25 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 32.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.96 | 1.22 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 34.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.9 in | 3.9 in | 3.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.8 in | 18.9 in | 18.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.7 mph | 93.3 mph | 93.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.7 in | 12.8 in | 12.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 19.9 in | 20.0 in | 20.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 50.1% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.7% | 31.6% | 32.2% | 32.2% |
| Whiff rate | 30.6% | 25.5% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 27.6% | 32.5% | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.0% | 40.4% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.0% | 20.8% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.6% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.4% | 54.4% | 54.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.3% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 22.8% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.7% | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 20.7% | 20.7% |