Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 14.6 in
- RP forecast
- 14.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.20 | 1.32 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 49.7% |
| RP | 3.74 | 1.28 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 51.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.6 in | 14.5 in | 14.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.8 in | 3.9 in | 3.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.8 mph | 93.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.0 in | 12.1 in | 12.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.3 in | 7.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 108 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 94 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 42.6% | 45.9% | 45.7% | 45.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.6% | 28.1% | 28.7% | 28.1% |
| Whiff rate | 26.7% | 25.8% | 27.5% | 25.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.3% | 49.7% | 51.7% | 49.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.4% | 39.9% | 37.5% | 39.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.8% | 21.0% | 23.1% | 21.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 20.0% | 20.5% | 20.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.8% | 61.8% | 61.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.4% | 36.0% | 35.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 19.2% | 18.3% | 19.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.1% | 15.4% | 16.1% |