Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 3.9 in
- RP forecast
- 3.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.34 | 1.09 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 43.1% |
| RP | 2.88 | 1.05 | 31.4% | 6.9% | 45.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.9 in | 3.8 in | 3.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.1 in | 17.2 in | 17.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.6 mph | 97.2 mph | 96.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.3 in | 14.4 in | 14.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.9 in | 18.0 in | 17.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 108 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | 108 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 49.6% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 36.6% | 32.9% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
| Whiff rate | 31.7% | 31.3% | 33.1% | 31.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.0% | 43.1% | 45.1% | 43.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.8% | 37.1% | 34.6% | 37.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.0% | 29.4% | 31.4% | 29.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 20.8% | 21.4% | 20.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.0% | 54.1% | 54.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.5% | 36.0% | 35.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.9% | 25.0% | 25.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.9% | 27.1% | 25.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.6% | 16.8% | 17.6% |