Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 10.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.53 | 1.36 | 18.6% | 7.9% | 44.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.07 | 1.32 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 46.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.2 in | 10.1 in | 10.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.3 in | 12.3 in | 12.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.9 mph | 95.4 mph | 95.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.5 in | 9.6 in | 9.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | 90 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 49.2% | 48.9% | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.6% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 20.9% | 21.7% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.2% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.5% | 42.2% | 39.8% | 39.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.2% | 18.6% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.1% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.8% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.2% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.5% | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.0% | 17.2% | 17.2% |