Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.9 in
- RP forecast
- 14.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.9 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.6 in | 12.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.6 mph | 92.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.9 in | 14.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.0 in | 18.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.6% | 47.5% | 47.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 37.1% | 30.3% | 30.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.2% | 22.9% | 24.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 16.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.8% | 36.8% | 38.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.8% | 42.0% | 39.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 21.2% | 18.9% | 21.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.4% | 22.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.6% | 48.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 16.4% | 17.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.6% | 25.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 3.3% | 3.7% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.5% | 25.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.0% | 18.2% | — |