Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.5 in
- RP forecast
- 6.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.22 | 1.27 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 40.1% |
| RP | 3.76 | 1.23 | 24.7% | 7.9% | 42.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.5 in | 6.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | 94.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.2 in | 4.3 in | 4.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 19.3 in | 19.4 in | 19.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 109 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 49.2% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.6% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 23.9% | 24.3% | 26.1% | 24.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.0% | 40.1% | 42.2% | 40.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.4% | 39.7% | 37.3% | 39.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.8% | 22.7% | 24.7% | 22.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 42.5% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.9% | 44.9% | 44.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.9% | 28.5% | 27.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.8% | 26.0% | 24.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 16.6% | 17.4% |