Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 2.9 in
- RP forecast
- 2.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.34 | 1.37 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 53.9% |
| RP | 3.88 | 1.33 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 55.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 2.9 in | 2.8 in | 2.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.0 in | 12.0 in | 12.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.1 mph | 95.7 mph | 95.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.8 in | 4.9 in | 4.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | 16.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 95 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | 90 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 48.6% | 48.2% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.5% | 27.3% | 27.9% | 27.3% |
| Whiff rate | 21.0% | 22.2% | 23.9% | 22.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.2% | 53.9% | 55.9% | 53.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.2% | 39.1% | 36.7% | 39.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.2% | 18.2% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 44.1% | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.4% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.6% | 33.2% | 32.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.0% | 27.2% | 26.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.8% | 16.0% | 16.8% |