Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.2 in
- RP forecast
- 4.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.2 in | 4.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.3 mph | 92.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.0 in | 11.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.0 in | 7.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 96 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.1% | 49.6% | 49.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.6% | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.2% | 20.7% | 22.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.0% | 44.0% | 46.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.3% | 39.5% | 37.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 15.5% | 16.3% | 18.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.1% | 26.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.3% | 65.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.2% | 39.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.1% | 6.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.1% | 1.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 18.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 16.1% | — |