Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 18.3 in
- RP forecast
- 18.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 18.3 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 1.5 in | 1.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.7 in | 19.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 102 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | — |
| Zone rate | 54.1% | 51.6% | 51.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.1% | 27.2% | 27.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.0% | 22.4% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.0% | 47.3% | 49.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 41.3% | 38.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 29.3% | 23.1% | 25.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 59.3% | 59.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 36.5% | 36.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.6% | 30.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.5% | 3.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 44.5% | 45.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.1% | 14.3% | — |