Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 17.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.54 | 1.36 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 43.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.08 | 1.32 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 45.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.7 in | 17.6 in | 17.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.2 in | 2.2 in | 2.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | 93.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.9 in | 15.0 in | 15.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.5 in | 15.6 in | 15.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 48.1% | 49.1% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.7% | 29.0% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Whiff rate | 23.7% | 20.8% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.1% | 43.9% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.4% | 40.0% | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.5% | 18.6% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 24.7% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.4% | 61.4% | 61.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.8% | 30.4% | 30.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.7% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% |