Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.1 in
- RP forecast
- 16.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.1 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.9 in | 3.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.3 mph | 94.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.2 in | 3.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 52.3% | 51.0% | 50.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.5% | 25.7% | 26.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 14.4% | 17.1% | 18.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 61.3% | 53.9% | 55.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.3% | 43.5% | 41.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.8 pp | 0.8 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 10.8% | 14.7% | 16.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.1% | 23.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.0% | 67.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 53.0% | 53.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.1% | 8.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.8% | 21.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.5% | 10.7% | — |