Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.9 in
- RP forecast
- 6.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.9 in | 6.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.9 in | 19.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.4 in | 14.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.3 in | 7.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.5% | 47.8% | 47.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.1% | 29.4% | 30.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.9% | 25.7% | 27.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.1% | 35.5% | 37.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.1% | 38.2% | 35.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.3% | 20.2% | 22.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.3% | 38.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.4% | 38.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.4% | 34.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.1% | 24.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 24.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.2% | 20.4% | — |