Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.2 in
- RP forecast
- 14.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.2 in | 14.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.2 in | 12.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.7 mph | 92.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.5 in | 8.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.8 in | 18.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.3% | 47.7% | 47.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.4% | 29.5% | 30.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.1% | 22.3% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.0% | 39.0% | 41.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.4% | 39.4% | 37.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.7% | 19.0% | 21.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 39.8% | 40.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.7% | 45.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 21.0% | 21.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.9% | 13.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.7% | 29.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.0% | 21.2% | — |