Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 2.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 2.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.42 | 1.29 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 38.1% |
| RP · chosen | 3.96 | 1.25 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 40.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 2.8 in | 2.8 in | 2.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.0 in | 12.1 in | 12.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.8 mph | 92.4 mph | 92.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.4 in | 15.5 in | 15.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.1 in | 9.2 in | 9.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 47.8% | 49.9% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.1% | 29.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Whiff rate | 27.5% | 24.6% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.3% | 38.1% | 40.1% | 40.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.3% | 38.4% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.9% | 21.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.4% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.3% | 59.3% | 59.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.5% | 43.0% | 43.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.7% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% |