Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.56 | 1.42 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 49.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.10 | 1.38 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 51.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.8 in | 16.7 in | 16.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.7 in | 5.8 in | 5.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.4 mph | 96.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 12.0 in | 12.1 in | 12.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Zone rate | 43.3% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.8% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 27.0% | 24.8% | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.6% | 49.3% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.4% | 43.6% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.5% | 19.5% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.6% | 41.1% | 41.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.4% | 56.4% | 56.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.0% | 43.6% | 43.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.1% | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% |