Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.4 in
- RP forecast
- 3.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.4 in | 3.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.0 mph | 92.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.7 in | 11.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.4 in | 5.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.7% | 48.6% | 48.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.9% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 27.7% | 23.9% | 25.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.7% | 39.9% | 41.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.2% | 38.2% | 35.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.9% | 19.4% | 21.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 57.2% | 57.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 37.4% | 37.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.5% | 2.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 41.1% | 42.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.9% | 17.1% | — |