Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 10.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.73 | 1.41 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 43.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.27 | 1.37 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 45.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.8 in | 10.8 in | 10.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.0 in | 10.0 in | 10.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.0 mph | 93.5 mph | 93.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.5 in | 14.7 in | 14.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | 15.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 46.7% | 48.2% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.0% | 27.4% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Whiff rate | 20.9% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.9% | 43.9% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.0% | 40.5% | 38.1% | 38.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 16.3% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 19.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.0% | 27.6% | 27.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.1% | 64.1% | 64.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.3% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.4% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.2% | 23.4% | 23.4% |