Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.52 | 1.33 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 40.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.06 | 1.29 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 42.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.2 in | 7.2 in | 7.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.5 in | 15.6 in | 15.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.6 mph | 94.2 mph | 94.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.4 in | 7.6 in | 7.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.8 in | 12.9 in | 12.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 47.6% | 48.2% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.4% | 29.7% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| Whiff rate | 25.5% | 24.1% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.3% | 40.5% | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.6% | 39.1% | 36.6% | 36.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.2% | 20.4% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.7% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.3% | 56.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 20.7% | 21.3% | 21.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.2% | 21.5% | 21.5% |