Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.02 | 1.26 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 41.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.56 | 1.22 | 26.5% | 8.7% | 43.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.7 in | 8.7 in | 8.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.8 in | 17.9 in | 17.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | 96.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.2 in | 9.3 in | 9.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.2 in | 10.3 in | 10.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 45.0% | 48.0% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 38.4% | 31.7% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| Whiff rate | 30.8% | 27.7% | 29.4% | 29.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.6% | 41.8% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.7% | 40.6% | 38.1% | 38.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.1% | 24.4% | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 21.7% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 42.8% | 42.8% | 42.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.7% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 37.8% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.4% | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.5% | 18.8% | 18.8% |