Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.86 | 1.35 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 31.8% |
| RP · chosen | 4.40 | 1.31 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 33.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.4 in | 7.3 in | 7.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.4 in | 19.5 in | 19.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.1 mph | 91.7 mph | 91.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.6 in | 11.7 in | 11.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.2 in | 6.3 in | 6.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 47.5% | 47.8% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.6% | 29.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Whiff rate | 21.7% | 20.3% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 29.4% | 31.8% | 33.8% | 33.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.2% | 38.2% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.2% | 17.9% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.3% | 59.4% | 59.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 54.4% | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 29.5% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.6% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% |