Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.49 | 1.20 | 27.5% | 8.3% | 51.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.03 | 1.16 | 29.6% | 8.6% | 53.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.8 in | 15.7 in | 15.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.9 in | 8.9 in | 8.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.5 mph | 99.0 mph | 99.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.7 in | 10.9 in | 10.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.9 in | 6.0 in | 6.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 121 | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 111 | 113 | 113 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 47.8% | 49.8% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 38.6% | 32.8% | 33.4% | 33.4% |
| Whiff rate | 34.2% | 29.8% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.0% | 51.5% | 53.5% | 53.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.5% | 38.1% | 35.6% | 35.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.5% | 27.5% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.4% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.3% | 60.3% | 60.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.0% | 44.6% | 44.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.6% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 17.2% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.2% | 16.4% | 16.4% |