Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 17.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.07 | 1.31 | 24.2% | 9.4% | 45.7% |
| RP · chosen | 3.61 | 1.27 | 26.3% | 9.7% | 47.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.1 in | 17.0 in | 17.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.6 in | 5.6 in | 5.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.2 mph | 95.8 mph | 95.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.2 in | 16.3 in | 16.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.6 in | 16.7 in | 16.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 48.2% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.7% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 27.9% | 25.4% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 45.7% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.7% | 39.6% | 37.2% | 37.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.2% | 24.2% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 48.7% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.3% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.7% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.1% | 36.3% | 36.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 21.5% | 21.5% |