Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 7.0 in
- RP forecast
- 7.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.47 | 1.31 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 38.6% |
| RP | 4.01 | 1.27 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 40.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.0 in | 7.0 in | 7.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 93.0 mph | 92.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.9 in | 17.0 in | 16.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.8 in | 14.0 in | 13.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.1% | 47.9% | 48.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.0% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 22.4% | 23.5% | 25.2% | 23.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.8% | 38.6% | 40.6% | 38.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.7% | 37.5% | 35.0% | 37.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.0% | 20.4% | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.3% | 32.8% | 32.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.2% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 41.2% | 41.8% | 41.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 19.4% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.7% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.2% | 17.4% | 18.2% |