Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.9 in
- RP forecast
- 16.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.9 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.9 in | 3.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.7 mph | 95.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.3 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.6 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 48.6% | 48.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 23.5% | 26.6% | 27.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 15.6% | 19.2% | 20.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.6% | 48.1% | 50.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.5% | 41.5% | 39.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 12.8% | 15.9% | 18.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.9% | 27.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.4% | 58.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.6% | 38.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.9% | 13.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.2% | 1.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.6% | 24.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.5% | 17.7% | — |