Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.44 | 1.12 | 31.5% | 8.0% | 39.3% |
| RP · chosen | 2.98 | 1.09 | 33.6% | 8.3% | 41.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.9 in | 7.8 in | 7.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.6 mph | 97.2 mph | 97.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.7 in | 7.8 in | 7.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.5 in | 13.6 in | 13.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 119 | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 49.2% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.0% | 30.9% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Whiff rate | 34.5% | 31.8% | 33.5% | 33.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.0% | 39.3% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.8% | 40.8% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 36.3% | 31.5% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 63.1% | 63.1% | 63.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 59.2% | 59.8% | 59.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.0% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.6% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.4% |