Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.7 in
- RP forecast
- 14.7 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.7 in | 14.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.3 in | 6.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.6 mph | 96.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.2 in | 13.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.0 in | 15.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.6% | 47.8% | 47.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.3% | 28.6% | 29.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.0% | 23.7% | 25.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.3% | 52.5% | 54.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 49.6% | 43.7% | 41.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.2% | 20.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.6% | 46.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.4% | 52.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.2% | 29.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.7% | 30.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.8% | 20.0% | — |