Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.2 in
- RP forecast
- 6.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.50 | 1.32 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 41.0% |
| RP | 4.05 | 1.28 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 43.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.2 in | 6.2 in | 6.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.3 mph | 94.9 mph | 94.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.4 in | 18.5 in | 18.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.2 in | 7.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 51.9% | 50.8% | 50.5% | 50.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.9% | 27.9% | 28.5% | 27.9% |
| Whiff rate | 18.4% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 20.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.2% | 41.0% | 43.0% | 41.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.4% | 39.2% | 36.8% | 39.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.1% | 18.7% | 20.7% | 18.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.9% | 35.5% | 34.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.7% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.9% | 28.5% | 27.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.1% | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.7% | 21.0% | 19.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.7% | 18.9% | 19.7% |