Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.0 in
- RP forecast
- 15.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.0 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.4 in | 6.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.0 mph | 96.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.8 in | 7.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.7 in | 8.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 42.5% | 46.3% | 46.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 23.3% | 26.9% | 27.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.8% | 24.7% | 26.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.2% | 45.5% | 47.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 28.6% | 39.8% | 37.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.4 pp | -0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 19.8% | 11.1% | 11.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 25.9% | 20.8% | 22.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.1% | 18.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.3% | 59.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 21.5% | 22.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.2% | 22.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.4% | 25.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 23.0% | — |