Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.64 | 1.37 | 22.2% | 10.1% | 34.0% |
| RP · chosen | 4.18 | 1.33 | 24.3% | 10.4% | 36.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.3 in | 7.2 in | 7.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.1 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | 95.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.8 in | 13.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.9 in | 10.0 in | 10.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 112 | 103 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 47.7% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.1% | 27.4% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Whiff rate | 26.1% | 26.1% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 27.4% | 34.0% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.7% | 41.0% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.0% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.7% | 22.2% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.8% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.0% | 64.0% | 64.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.2% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.7% | 14.9% | 14.9% |