Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.62 | 1.36 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 34.2% |
| RP · chosen | 4.16 | 1.32 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 36.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.1 in | 5.0 in | 5.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.2 in | 19.2 in | 19.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.3 mph | 91.8 mph | 91.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.3 in | 5.4 in | 5.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.2 in | 9.3 in | 9.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 42.2% | 45.3% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.6% | 29.6% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Whiff rate | 33.1% | 27.8% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.4% | 34.2% | 36.2% | 36.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.5% | 37.6% | 35.2% | 35.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.1% | 21.7% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.8% | 32.4% | 32.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 41.6% | 41.6% | 41.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 34.5% | 35.1% | 35.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 26.6% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.6% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.6% | 23.9% | 23.9% |