Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.46 | 1.33 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 34.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.00 | 1.29 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 36.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.2 in | 7.1 in | 7.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.6 in | 16.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.7 mph | 96.3 mph | 96.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.8 in | 10.9 in | 10.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.3 in | 7.4 in | 7.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 43.6% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.9% | 28.5% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Whiff rate | 29.1% | 27.0% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 13.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 29.4% | 34.9% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.3% | 42.3% | 39.8% | 39.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.8% | 25.1% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 14.4% | 14.9% | 14.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.8% | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.4% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 27.2% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.9% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% |