Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.1 in
- RP forecast
- 4.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.1 in | 4.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.1 in | 19.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.3 mph | 95.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.9 in | 7.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 41.2% | 45.8% | 45.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.1% | 29.3% | 29.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.5% | 26.7% | 28.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 25.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 23.1% | 30.0% | 32.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.2% | 40.9% | 38.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.4 pp | -0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.1% | 22.6% | 24.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.7% | 41.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.4% | 54.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 47.3% | 47.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.7% | 3.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.1% | 1.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.9% | 37.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |