Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.4 in
- RP forecast
- 4.3 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.4 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.7 in | 16.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 88.8 mph | 89.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.2 in | 6.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 95 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 53.5% | 50.6% | 50.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.4% | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.1% | 20.4% | 22.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.6% | 37.8% | 39.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.8% | 37.6% | 35.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 11.4% | 16.1% | 18.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.2% | 19.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.2% | 53.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.4% | 47.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 28.6% | 27.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.1% | 29.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.9% | 11.1% | — |