Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 10.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.25 | 1.28 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 42.4% |
| RP · chosen | 3.79 | 1.24 | 26.0% | 8.4% | 44.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.9 in | 10.8 in | 10.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.3 in | 14.3 in | 14.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.8 mph | 98.3 mph | 98.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.0 in | 8.1 in | 8.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.7 in | 6.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 52.9% | 51.7% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.9% | 27.9% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| Whiff rate | 28.6% | 26.6% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 42.4% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.3% | 39.8% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.0 pp | 1.0 pp | 1.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.3% | 23.9% | 26.0% | 26.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 15.8% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 80.8% | 80.9% | 80.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 49.1% | 49.7% | 49.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.3% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.3% | 14.5% | 14.5% |