Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.9 in
- RP forecast
- 6.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.28 | 1.31 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 43.3% |
| RP | 3.83 | 1.27 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 45.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.9 in | 6.9 in | 6.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | 15.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.2 mph | 96.8 mph | 96.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.4 in | 8.5 in | 8.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.2 in | 7.3 in | 7.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 48.1% | 48.8% | 48.6% | 48.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.6% | 29.0% | 29.6% | 29.0% |
| Whiff rate | 23.4% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 24.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.4% | 43.3% | 45.3% | 43.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.3% | 41.1% | 38.6% | 41.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.0% | 21.3% | 23.4% | 21.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.3% | 27.8% | 27.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.5% | 61.5% | 61.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.7% | 32.3% | 31.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.2% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.4% | 16.6% | 17.4% |