Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 11.4 in
- RP forecast
- 11.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.23 | 1.29 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 42.3% |
| RP | 3.77 | 1.25 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 44.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.4 in | 11.3 in | 11.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.0 in | 14.0 in | 14.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.4 in | 17.5 in | 17.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.6 in | 4.8 in | 4.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 48.0% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.7% | 29.8% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 25.6% | 27.3% | 25.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.2% | 42.3% | 44.4% | 42.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.7% | 39.3% | 36.9% | 39.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.7% | 22.3% | 24.4% | 22.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.9% | 33.5% | 32.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.9% | 58.9% | 58.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.5% | 28.1% | 27.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.1% | 22.3% | 21.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.3% | 19.6% | 20.3% |