Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.63 | 1.40 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 43.0% |
| RP · chosen | 4.17 | 1.36 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 45.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.7 in | 5.6 in | 5.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.5 in | 11.5 in | 11.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.2 mph | 96.8 mph | 96.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.3 in | 13.4 in | 13.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 46.4% | 47.8% | 47.6% | 47.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.2% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 23.7% | 23.4% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.5% | 43.0% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.8% | 41.6% | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.4% | 19.1% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.2% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.7% | 57.7% | 57.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.8% | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.0% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |