Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.5 in
- RP forecast
- 16.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.6 in | 2.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.3 mph | 94.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.1% | 49.8% | 49.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.9% | 27.3% | 27.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 14.9% | 19.3% | 21.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.4% | 47.2% | 49.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.8% | 39.5% | 37.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.8% | 18.7% | 20.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.1% | 32.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.9% | 64.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 57.3% | 57.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.1% | 1.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.0% | 30.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |