Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.5 in
- RP · chosen
- 6.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.10 | 1.26 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 40.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.64 | 1.23 | 26.7% | 8.8% | 42.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.4 in | 6.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.0 in | 19.1 in | 19.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 94.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.6 in | 4.8 in | 4.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | 17.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Zone rate | 47.4% | 48.6% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.2% | 29.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Whiff rate | 28.0% | 26.5% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.9% | 40.8% | 42.8% | 42.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.7% | 40.0% | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.9% | 24.6% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 48.3% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.7% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.7% | 43.3% | 43.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.0% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.2% | 15.4% | 15.4% |