Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP forecast
- 16.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 1.5 in | 1.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.1 mph | 91.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.2 in | 13.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.5 in | 14.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.3% | 50.3% | 50.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 28.0% | 28.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.8% | 21.8% | 23.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 59.2% | 53.2% | 55.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.0% | 37.6% | 35.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.8% | 19.2% | 21.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.7% | 30.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.4% | 58.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.8% | 10.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.2% | 28.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.9% | 12.1% | — |