Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 5.1 in
- RP forecast
- 5.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.37 | 1.29 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 40.8% |
| RP | 3.91 | 1.25 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 42.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.1 in | 5.0 in | 5.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | 15.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.1 mph | 94.7 mph | 94.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.4 in | 7.5 in | 7.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | 16.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 87 | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 49.4% | 49.4% | 49.1% | 49.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.8% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 27.8% |
| Whiff rate | 23.6% | 23.6% | 25.4% | 23.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.7% | 40.8% | 42.8% | 40.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.3% | 39.3% | 36.9% | 39.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.0% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 20.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.6% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.3% | 65.3% | 65.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.8% | 23.3% | 22.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.0% | 15.1% | 16.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 23.5% | 22.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.2% | 18.5% | 19.2% |