Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.2 in
- RP forecast
- 3.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.2 in | 3.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.0 in | 14.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.7 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 117 | 106 | 107 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 112 | 113 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 49.1% | 48.8% | 48.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.5% | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 34.7% | 29.3% | 31.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 25.0% | 36.1% | 38.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.3% | 36.5% | 34.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.4 pp | -0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 36.7% | 27.8% | 29.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 46.1% | 46.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.2% | 47.2% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.3% | 39.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.4% | 2.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.5% | 2.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 37.2% | 38.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.6% | 9.9% | — |